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Archive for March, 2010

Kenya still attractive for foreign investment -poll

31 Mar

NAIROBI, March 30 (Reuters) – Most east African corporate leaders considered political instability as the biggest risk to business but said Kenya was still an attractive destination for foreign investors, a poll published on Tuesday showed.

Only 26 percent of 100 chief executives and managing directors across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania said Kenya was not an attractive destination for foreign investment, a drop from a similar survey by pollster Synovate in July.

“The number of traders saying that Kenya is not an attractive investment country dropped significantly from 45 percent to 26 percent between July last year and March this year,” said George Waititu, Synovate’s managing director.

Kenya’s appeal as an investment destination paled in 2008 after violence erupted following a disputed election in east Africa’s largest economy. Some 1,500 people were killed and economic growth dropped to 1.7 percent from 7.1 percent in 2007.

Many eastern Africa economies, which rely on the Kenyan port for trade, suffered as a result of the violence.

A total 67 percent of those polled expected the Kenyan economy to perform moderately worse over the next six months.

Kenya is in the process of writing a new constitution, which analysts say is imperative for the nation to avoid a repeat of the post-election violence a couple of years ago.

Source:
Reuters

 
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Japan, China rivalry leaves Kenya with contract billions

29 Mar

Cooperation with China has been crucial in the building of many  roads in Kenya. Photo/FILE

Cooperation with China has been crucial in the building of many roads in Kenya. Photo/FILE

Kenya has become the latest beneficiary of the battle heating up between Japan and China for control of Africa’s economic landscape, raking in billions of shillings in new project finance and grant funds in the past two years.

Though China has been the more brazen hunter of opportunities in the country’s vast infrastructure and natural resources sectors, the scales have been tilting in favour of Japan in recent months as the Asian economic powerhouse unleashed its corporate giants for pieces of the action.

With the support of their government, Japanese firms are making few but high strategic entries into East Africa, targeting the expected windfall in mineral extraction and consumer goods markets.

Japan has for decades defined its presence in Kenya through aid, but is now widening its scope to the private sector— a move that places it in a head-to-head battle with China.

“There is some kind of soft competition emerging between China and Japan, not just in Kenya but across Africa,” said Gerishon Ikiara, a lecturer at University of Nairobi’s Institute of International Relations.“It’s a fight that involves both economic and political dominance. Japan has been here for long, but is now stepping up its efforts upon realisation that China is fast increasing its influence in key economies such as Kenya,” he added.

Both embassies declined to comment.

Japan’s profile in Kenya has been gradually diminishing in the past decade as an increasingly assertive China clinched multi-million infrastructure deals and doubled its development aid to the country.

Japan’s recent actions indicate that it is keen on replicating the Chinese model as it plays the catch up game. Its main goal is to encourage private investments through loans from its state-controlled banks and to scale up its lending to government.

Tokyo is targeting infrastructure projects, agribusiness and natural resources, notably oil exploration in Southern Sudan, Uganda and Kenya.

In recent months, Japanese corporate executives and leaders have been making whirlwind tours of Africa with Kenya as a regular item on their itinerary.

Japan’s Crown Prince Naruhito on his first trip to Sub Saharan Africa was in Kenya early this month after visiting Ghana as part of plans to boost Japanese profile on the continent.

Last week, Toyota Tsusho, the carmaker’s trading arm, announced plans to build a $1.5 billion (Sh112 billion) oil pipeline from South Sudan to the Kenyan coast, complete with an oil export terminal.

China also has interests in Lamu project, which includes rail and port facilities, and it remains to be seen how the bidding for the project between the Asian rivals plays out.

Both countries have interests in Southern Sudan where they have been granted rights to explore oil and China has struck a deal to put swathes of land in the region under food crop production, in what has come to be commonly known as Africa’s land grab.

Toyota Tsusho has expressed interests to enter the lucrative electricity market by constructing mega geothermal power generation plants.

It is also set to put up an assembly plant for its Toyota brand of vehicles in Kenya with the East Africa common market a key driver of the expected capital flows.

The integration will create a market of about 126 million persons and allow for free movement of factors of production, goods and services among the five East Africa Community member states.

The enlarged market is expected to act as catalysts for fresh investments in the region with Japanese multinationals that shunned it due to the small size of fragmented markets show interests.

Sources at the Japanese embassy reckon that the discovery of oil in western Uganda and positive talk from Chinese firms exploring oil in Northern Kenya has sparked enquiries from oil executives in Japan.

Japan Bank for International Co-operation CEO Mr Hiroshi Watanabe was quoted in international media saying that his bank would readily finance Japanese private firms that are keen to invest in Kenya.

Chinese state-owned firms led by China National Offshore Company (CNOOC) have of late been major players in the oil exploration business in Kenya.

The current momentum of oil exploration started with a visit to China in 2004 by President Mwai Kibaki.

The increased presence of China in Kenya fits in well with Kibaki’s government policy to look East for investments and aid as traditional partners like Western Europe and US become more tight-fisted.

China has signed deals with Chinese firms ranging from oil exploration to mining and infrastructure developments.

Kenya has also opened its markets to Chinese goods as shown by mushrooming of China products in Kenya’s major urban centres.

And Japan is said to play the same card of cultivating rapport with the top political establishment, which is best captured by high profile visits between Nairobi and Tokyo in recent weeks.

Last month, Japan hosted a Kenyan delegation led by the Prime Minister Raila Odinga in Tokyo with the intention of forging closer business ties between the two nations.

Japan also extended a soft loan of $375 million to Kenya following the prime minister’s visit.

Analysts reckon that Japan has in recent days also softened on its tough conditions when disbursing loans to Kenya.

Aid provision

“Japan was known for the tough aid conditions employed by the west but appears to be loosening up,” said Mr Ikiara.

Japan has applied strict criteria for aid provision to developing countries in Asia, Africa and elsewhere in the world with its focus on democracy and human rights records.

China, on the other hand, has ignored political, environmental and humanitarian considerations.

Dennis Awuori, a former Kenyan ambassador to Japan and now chairman of Toyota East Africa, says that Japanese government was less enthusiastic in pushing the private sector to invest in Africa until 2008 when its strategy to prop up private investments was drawn.

The fresh push comes at a time when the presence of Japanese firms such as Sharp, Sony and Konoike is fading away despite being dominant in the 1980’S and early 1990’s.

In 2006, the value of Chinese imports overtook those of Japan to stand at Sh64.4 billion in 2008 compared to Sh44.8 billion of Beijing.

In 2008, Tokyo set the twin goals of doubling its development aid to Africa and helping Japanese companies to double their own investment in the continent to $3.4bn by 2012.

Japanese interest in Kenya is part of the wider plan to exert its influence in Africa, especially on the diplomatic and economic front at the global stage.

Tokyo has counted on the support of the continent’s 53 countries for its bid for a permanent United Nations Security Council seat.

China has been on a charm offensive in the continent over the past decade stretching its growing clout from Asia to Africa to its advantage on the global stage.

For instance, Beijing managed to scupper a deal in Copenhagen by refusing to agree to emissions cut and is currently pushing, with increasing success, for the Yuan to be recognized as an international currency and be at par with the US dollar.

It is such clout that Japan is seeking by stepping up its engagement with countries such as Kenya.

source:

BD Africa

 
 

Marc Faber: We Have a New Gold Standard

19 Mar

The markets have created their own gold standard because of uncertainties regarding other asset classes, Marc Faber, author of “The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report,” told CNBC Thursday.

Gold Bars
AP

“I think we already have now a gold standard … created by the market place,” Faber told “Squawk Box Europe.”

“We have the (exchange traded funds) that have proliferated and we have more and more physical buying of gold,” he said.

Between 2001 and 2008, gold outperformed bonds and stocks, but starting with 2009 stocks outperformed, which means investors must own gold because generally retail investors cannot move in and out of different assets like institutional investors, Faber said.

For the next six months, the global economy will look better, particularly compared with March 2009 when the downturn was at its worst, he said, adding that he would buy oil and mining companies, especially Exxon [XOM 67.39 0.03 (+0.04%) ], Chevron [CVX 74.76 0.09 (+0.12%) ] and Schlumberger [SLB 65.25 -1.35 (-2.03%) ].

“I think that the oil price would rather go up than down. I think oil stocks would perform rather well, by the way also mining companies,” Faber said.

Investors should have a minimum of 50 percent of their money in emerging economies because these are growing much faster than the developed world, he recommended.

Treasurys to Yield 10-20%

An extreme bubble in US Treasurys has been deflated for the moment and yields are likely to rise sharply over the next years, Faber told CNBC.com separately.

“I still think that Treasurys are overpriced,” Faber said.

Yields on 10-year US Treasurys are likely to rise to between 10 and 20 percent over the next 5 to 10 years because of inflation and oversupply, he said.

Money-printing is just another way for governments to silently default on their debt Faber wrote in the latest “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.”

When a company or a government actually default on their payment obligations, the process is relatively fair because lenders get just 30, 60 or 80 cents a dollar for the money they lent, Faber wrote.

“But if a government decides to default through money printing, the burden of the default isn’t shared equally,” he wrote.

Dr. Marc Faber
Axel Griesch | ASFM | Getty Images
Dr. Marc Faber

“Defaulting through money printing means the repayment of the creditors occurs in a currency whose purchasing power was severely curtailed through the money-printing process,” Faber explained.

He said rising cost of living, a depreciating currency against other currencies or against precious metals and commodities are common symptoms of a loss in the purchasing power of a currency.

In an environment of inflation, cash and government bonds are “poison” although the current rally in stocks is partially caused by low interest rates, Faber told “Squawk Box Europe.”

Investors should avoid bonds and cash over the next 10 years and choose stocks instead, he said, but warned that printing money will lead to an economic collapse in the end.

“Before we have the final collapse that will be a deflationary collapse, we will have more and more money printing.”

“I think interest rates forever in the US will be at zero, by zero I mean below the rate of inflation,” Faber predicted.

“It will result in a lot of inflation but inflation has a lot of different symptoms.”

The financial sector, especially firms that know how to move money quickly between various asset classes, stand to gain from the increasing volatility, Faber said.

“In periods of money printing and debasing of currencies, wealth becomes concentrated in the Goldman Sachses [GS 177.45 0.81 (+0.46%) ] of the world because they can move money quickly,” he said.

There is a danger that US public debt will grow so much that “the government will need to print money just to pay the interest on the government debt,” Faber wrote.

Interest payments on the US government debt could rise to between 35 percent and 50 percent of tax revenues within 10 years, from the current 13 percent of tax revenues, he also wrote.

Greece Must Be Bailed Out

In Europe, the situation is different, he told CNBC.com.

“Greece cannot print money, the US can,” Faber noted. “If Greece wished to default through nonpayment of their internal debt they could devalue and exit the EU,” he said.

Under EU legislation, European Union members with the exception of Britain and Denmark must all adopt the euro as their currency and those already in the euro zone cannot leave the monetary union.

But German chancellor Angela Merkel called for a change of the EU legislation to allow the expulsion of a country from the euro zone if it breaches fiscal rules repeatedly, signaling a willingness of European politicians to change the rules of the game.

“If Greece stays in, it has to be bailed out,” Faber said.

“I don’t regard the euro as a specifically better currency than the dollar,” he also said.

Source:
CNBC

 
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Richard Branson; why you cannot run a business without risks

16 Mar

I thought it would be helpful to answer the five questions I am asked most often on my travels.

They cover advice, inspiration, motivation and regret. Let me know if you have other questions you are keen to know the answers to.

What is the best advice you ever got?

Three gems come to mind. First, an enduring one from my mother, Eve, who always taught me never to look back in regret but to move on to the next thing. The amount of time people waste dwelling on failures rather than putting that energy into another project always amazes me.

I have had fun running all of the Virgin businesses, so I never see a setback as a bad experience; it is just a learning curve.

My mother also told me not to openly criticise other people. If she heard me speaking ill of someone, she would make me stand in front of the mirror for five minutes and stare at myself. Her reasoning? All my critical talk was a poor reflection on my own character.

In the 1980s Freddie Laker, the British airline executive, gave me a great piece of advice on setting up my own airline. He told me two key things: “You’ll never have the advertising power to outsell British Airways. You are going to have to get out there and use yourself. Make a fool of yourself. Otherwise you won’t survive.” He also wisely said: “Make sure you appear on the front page and not the back pages.” I’ve followed that advice ever since. I’ve been very visible and made a fool of myself on more than one occasion!

And the worst advice?

I’d never embarrass the person who gave it by revealing that! Look, advice comes in many forms. I believe in never asking just one person, but in asking many. Opinions always vary. By asking several people what they think, you get many angles and can weigh them all. This way, you are never considering just one person’s opinion, so no one piece of advice is ever truly bad.

What advice would you give to young entrepreneurs on how best to start?

To remember that it is impossible to run a business without taking risks. Virgin would not be the company it is today if we had not taken risks along the way. You really do have to believe in what you are doing. Devote yourself to it 100 per cent and be prepared to take a few hits along the way. If you go into something expecting it to fail, nine times out of 10, it will.

Above all, remember to have fun with it. That keeps you and your colleagues enthusiastic and motivated. One of my favourite sayings summarises this perfectly: “The brave may not live forever — but the cautious do not live at all!”

In your career you have had lots of successes, but you have failed in some businesses. What have you learned from those?

As an entrepreneur you have to learn very quickly that there’s no such thing as a failure. Looking back on Virgin’s history, our ability to adapt quickly to changes has helped mitigate reverses. You must be quick to accept that something is not going well and either change tack or close the business. We run our companies lean and small; there is very little red tape and certainly no bureaucracy. We make and implement decisions quickly — usually before our competitors in the market have held their fifth meeting on the same issue.

Though I believe in taking risks, I also firmly believe in “protecting the downside.” This means working out in advance all the things that could go wrong and making sure you have all those eventualities covered. We have come close to failure many times. Most entrepreneurs skirt close to it. I nearly failed when Virgin was in its infancy, I nearly failed in the early 1980s, and, of course, I have nearly died more than once trying to achieve world records for boating or ballooning. But through a combination of luck and planning, both Virgin and I are still here.

Do you have any regrets?

There are always things in life that you might regret, and there are probably a lot of business decisions I regret – but I try not to dwell on them. I move on to more positive things.

One missed opportunity does rankle still. That was the chance to run the United Kingdom’s national lottery. Our proposal was to run a not-for-profit game, with much of the money going to good causes, but we were just beaten by the eventual winner.

We have moved on and set up Virgin Unite, our foundation, to act as the catalyst to helping others and galvanising our companies into action. It has been crucial in helping us establish The Elders and The Carbon War Room, initiatives aimed at solving conflict and helping to combat climate change.

And finally, I am often asked: Are you a man of habits? I guess being a serial entrepreneur is a pretty big habit.

Source:
BD Africa

 
 

Barrick Gold Corp plans to spin-off its African unit

02 Mar
Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold miner, is spinning off its African gold assets into a new publicly traded company that will be floated on the London Stock Exchange.
The new company, called African Barrick Gold, will be the biggest UK-based gold miner. It will have 10% of Barrick’s assets, giving it a potential market value of $3.7 billion (£2.4 billion). This could catapult it straight into the FTSE 100 index (UKX).
Barrick plans to retain a 75% stake in the group initially.
“Size-wise it’s bigger than Randgold Resources (RRS) and certainly it would be one of the prime gold listings on the LSE,” said Leon Esterhuizen, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in London.
African Barrick, which operates four mines in Tanzania, also intends to have a secondary listing on the country’s Dar es Salaam stock exchange. It hopes to boost its annual production to more than one million ounces of gold by 2014, from an estimated 800,000 to 850,000 ounces this year. Randgold mines 488,000 ounces a year.
While the London stockmarket has been hit by several high-profile flotations being pulled last week – private equity-owned Travelport, Merlin Entertainments and New Look – there is confidence that African Barrick will succeed because it has no debt and $280 million in cash. An investor roadshow will start around 5 March.
The spin-off is the latest big move by chief executive Aaron Regent, who took the helm a year ago. He plans to use the proceeds from the flotation to fund its pipeline of development projects.
Barrick announced the move as group operating profits doubled in the fourth quarter, thanks to gold prices hitting record levels in the final three months of 2009.
Average gold prices in the quarter were $1,119 per ounce, up from $809 a year earlier.
Sources:
 
 

Mergers and acquisition deals in Africa double

02 Mar

The biggest deal announced so far in the continent remains India’s  Bharti Airtel’s $10 billion bid for mobile telephony company Zain’s   Africa  assets. Photo/ANTHONY KAMAU

The biggest deal announced so far in the continent remains India’s Bharti Airtel’s $10 billion bid for mobile telephony company Zain’s Africa assets. Photo/ANTHONY KAMAU

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in Africa doubled in the first three months of the year as a resumption of capital inflows into the continent sought out high yielding investments.

Driven by a rebounding global economy and higher risk appetite among investors in the world’s financial capitals, Africa is once again on the spot light as a key destination for firms seeking exposure to the continent’s bubbling growth.

Data from ThomsonReuters indicates that M&A activity in the region increased from 3.5 per cent to 6.6 per cent with commodity, financial services, telecommunications and power companies leading the preferred targets for global companies.

Although still considered the back water region for global M&A activity, Africa’s vibrant commodity based economies are attracting investors with the largest names in global finance positioning themselves for the surge in capital flows.

“There are a lot of capital flows from non traditional sources and we’re extremely bullish about Africa,” said Patrick Mweheire, chief executive officer at Renaissance Capital.

South African firms primarily in mining and financial services have led the pack in M&A activity on the back of a sharp rise in commodity markets during the early stages of the recovery.Africa is becoming increasingly spoilt for choice regarding potential international government investors as Western powers scramble to counter the effect from Asian economies is having throughout the continent.

The biggest deal announced so far in the continent remains India’s Bharti Airtel’s $10 billion bid for mobile telephony company Zain Africa’s assets.

If managed well, the benefit for Africa in having more international suitors will be significant.

Kenya’s presence in Africa’s M&A space so far has been from Kenol Kobil’s 10.50 per cent additional acquisition in Zambian lubricants manufacturer Lublend Ltd and I&M Bank’s complete buyout of Tanzanian bank CF Union Bank.

TransCentury Ltd’s plans to raise its interest to 55 per cent from 20 per cent, by acquiring a 35 per cent stake, in Rift Valley Railways, a provider of rail transportation services, from Sheltam Ltd failed to go through.

Instead, Citadel Capital an Egyptian private equity firm acquired a 49 per cent stake in Sheltam Railways Company, a key shareholder in Rift Valley Railways.

According to economic observers, the global economy appears to have made it out of the recession. The scramble in Africa has not only been about the acquisition of raw materials, but access to markets.

Africa is in many ways the final frontier for global investment.

These developments have meant that firms with global aspirations are being forced to incorporate Africa into their long-term plans.

“We expect the recovery that began in the middle of last year to continue into 2010,” said analysts at AIG Investments.

Stronger growth

The global economy is rebounding, supported by substantial policy stimulus by governments and growth in emerging economies expected to outpace that of developed nations.

In the case of the United States, Europe and Japan, analysts at AIG say there is likely to be a modest, but gradual recovery in economic output.

Stronger growth within emerging market economies as a whole is however expected to surpass that in more developed economies.

A January 2010 update of the World Economic Outlook put gross domestic product growth for emerging markets at an average of six per cent with China’s and India’s expected to grow at over 10 per cent and eight per cent respectively.

There are still enough reasons to remain nervously bullish about current market trends.

With the expected low interest rate environment, plentiful liquidity, recovery in company earnings and a continued improvement in financial market conditions.

Source:
BD Africa

 
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